22 minutes ago, Alan_A said:

Provisional death counts deliver our most comprehensive picture of lives lost to COVID-19. These estimates are based on death certificates, which are the most reliable source of data and contain information not available anywhere else, including comorbid conditions, race and ethnicity, and place of death.

When we used the NCHS NDI, (National Death Index) there would usually be a lag period up to 12 months in getting the most recent data.

Martin

Edited May 3, 20206 yr by MartinRex007

48 minutes ago, dave2013 said:

The CDC reports that the total number of Covid-19 deaths is 37,000 as of May 1, not the 60,000+ the media has been reporting.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Dave

That’s as of 4/25. A week ago.

We would also use the Social Security Death Index and compare it to the National Death Index and they never were the same, close but always a little off. 

Martin

Dave, we live in such an era of misinformation now you don't know what or who to believe.  The media sells advertising space based on readership and listenership.  If you can get more readers and listeners th more you sell.  Politicians tell what they want us to hear  to get votes.  It takes an exceptionally savvy person to sift it out and sort it out and then probably wrong anyway.  Gut feeling goes a long way.

Noel

1 minute ago, birdguy said:

Gut feeling goes a long way.

Noel

Reading carefully goes an even longer way.

A first person report from Roswell.  A lady wo contracted it and survived.  The first first person report I have read.

https://www.kob.com/new-mexico-news/chaves-county-woman-who-recovered-from-covid-19-said-she-felt-like-she-couldnt-breathe/5716913/

Noel

4 minutes ago, KevinAu said:

Reading carefully goes an even longer way.

How does one know what to read Kevin?  There are enough words out there about this ting to fill 24 volumes of the Encyclopedia Britannica. There is so much misinformation going on it's difficult to sift through it or know what's real and what's not.

One thing I do know is that I trust what Alan writes over what most people put out here much less the media.

Noel

5 minutes ago, birdguy said:

How does one know what to read Kevin?  There are enough words out there about this ting to fill 24 volumes of the Encyclopedia Britannica. There is so much misinformation going on it's difficult to sift through it or know what's real and what's not.

One thing I do know is that I trust what Alan writes over what most people put out here much less the media.

Noel

Dave2013 did not realize that the chart he was looking at only went to 4/25/2020 and not 5/1/2020, the date of the web page update. Therefore he thought the 60k deaths being reported by the media was false. The cdc web page only had numbers up to 4/25/2020, when deaths were at 36k or whatever it was.

3 hours ago, MartinRex007 said:

If you like this I would highly recommend "The Plague" by Albert Camus it's a classic!

I will counter with "The Doomsday Book" by Connie Willis, also a (rather dark) classic, of science fiction. 

Edited May 3, 20206 yr by HiFlyer

1 minute ago, HiFlyer said:

The Doomsday Book

I'll check it out, thanks!

Martin

2 hours ago, MartinRex007 said:

I'll check it out, thanks!

Martin

https://web.archive.org/web/20080521083027/http://www.scifi.com/sfw/issue430/classic.html

3 hours ago, KevinAu said:

That’s as of 4/25. A week ago.

My bad.  I was looking at the title at the top of the chart which reads "Data as of May 1" whereas the number I roughly quoted was indeed for 4/25.

Dave

Edited May 3, 20206 yr by dave2013

The oxford CEBM are big fans of John Snow and his investigation of outliers that might disprove his theory.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-is-lombardy-the-widow-of-hampstead/
 

They recommend The Betrothed  as a masterful description of the plague which describes social distancing techniques

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-the-great-plague-of-lombardy-a-not-so-distant-resonance-chamber

 

 

14 hours ago, dave2013 said:

Here's what I found regarding his credentials:

PhD in computer science from the University of Stuttgart, Germany; ScD (Habilitation) in Medical Biometry from the Eberhard-Karls-University Tuüingen, Germany; 15 years working with Klaus Dietz, a leading epidemiologist who coined the term “reproduction number”, on the Epidemiology of HIV.; Head of The Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design at The Rockefeller University, New York. and CEO of ASDERA LLC, a company discovering novel treatments for complex diseases from data of genome-wide association studies.

Rockefeller University issued a statement in which they state that his views on Covid-19 do not represent the University, and that he was not a professor there.  Not that he wasn't a scientist there, but not a "Professor".

So he was indeed a scientist working in epidemiology and biostatistics at Rockefeller University.

Dave

Dr. Wittkowski`s non-peer reviewed modeling on COVID-19 has been in the public domain since March 31. see here https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.28.20036715v2.full.pdf. Here are  Dr. Wittkowski`s ethical and competing interests declarations regarding this paper https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.28.20036715v5. There are issues with Dr. Wittkowski`s modeling. His conclusion that there would be less than 10,000 fatalities in total from COVID-19 in the USA did not and will not predict reality. 

Scientific time unlike pecuniary interests cannot be curbed infinitely by premonitions of economic black holes or by the witching of politically dark energy.  

 

 

 

 

23 minutes ago, CYXR said:

Dr. Wittkowski`s non-peer reviewed modeling on COVID-19 has been in the public domain since March 31. see here https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.28.20036715v2.full.pdf. Here are  Dr. Wittkowski`s ethical and competing interests declarations regarding this paper https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.28.20036715v5. There are issues with Dr. Wittkowski`s modeling. His conclusion that there would be less than 10,000 fatalities in total from COVID-19 in the USA did not and will not predict reality. 

Scientific time unlike pecuniary interests cannot be curbed infinitely by premonitions of economic black holes or by the witching of politically dark energy.  

 

 

 

 

I'm not a scientist or doctor, so I don't pretend to be able to understand or evaluate Dr. Wittkowski's Covid-19 models, and I don't agree or disagree with his conclusions. 

I am merely pointing out that there are indeed some doctors and scientists who do not agree with the prevailing theory of Covid-19's severity or the harsh, restrictive measures being used to combat it.

I have no idea what you mean by "the witching of politically dark energy".  I find that to be a bizarre statement which has nothing to do with my posts.

Dave